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Сost of a bitcoin transaction decreases every four years — is it a coincidence or not?

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The cost per bitcoin transaction is calculated by dividing the miners' income by the number of transactions, which implies an unpredictable trend.

Diving deep into the thirteen-year-old Bitcoin ecosystem makes one come across interesting patterns powered organically by investor sentiment and market conditions. With BTC’s per transaction cost coming down to $56.846 on July 14, the ecosystem unveiled a cycle wherein the per transaction costs invariably fall every four years.

The cost of one bitcoin transaction is calculated by dividing the miners' income by the number of transactions, which implies an unpredictable trend — however, the data Blockchain.com shows a pattern many would find satisfactory.

The transaction value decreased by more than 81% in July 2022 compared to the record high of $300,331 in May 2021, due to a combination of a prolonged bear market and fewer transactions on the network due to regulatory restrictions imposed on ordinary investors.

However, the rise and fall of the transaction value is a pattern observed every four years. Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin's transaction value has gone through a roller coaster cycle three times — in 2014, 2018 and 2022.

If history repeats itself regardless of market conditions, the transaction value will eclipse the current historical maximum by 2026, which will be accompanied by a possible drop to about $50.

In general, the income of miners also decreased significantly during 2022, and July was the month of the lowest income from bitcoin mining in the last two years.

Under the influence of falling market prices, bitcoin miners barely made a profit due to the high operating costs associated with bitcoin mining. However, the price reduction for graphics cards or GPUs is intended to compensate for losses as miners gain access to affordable mining equipment.

As card manufacturers resumed operations after the end of the global chip shortage, GPU prices dropped significantly, and some cards were sold at a price below the manufacturer's recommended retail price. In May 2022, prices for mining equipment fell by more than 15% on average, as supply exceeded market demand.

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